Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Observations on Yesterday's Super-Duper Monster Tuesday

It's kind of a neat little set of bookends. Rotten Rudy G (sounds like a rap artist, doesn't it?) thought he was the front runner, but as the campaign went on and people got to know him, his numbers trailed off to the point where they vanished. He ended up dropping out before Super Tuesday.

Jeez, who could've seen that coming...

Obama is just the opposite. The more people get to know him, the more support he gets. It's not a coincidence that he won big yesterday in the states where he actually showed up in person. As the campaign progresses and more people get to know who he is, the more those numbers will climb.

The media has gone out of its way to call various states as supporting either Obama or Clinton, but given the way that delegates are proportionally allocated based on the relative percentages of the votes -- as opposed to the Rethug "winner take all" rules -- it's pretty much a meaningless distinction. It doesn't matter who won a given state, but who won the most delegates. That's what Nevada proved: Clinton won "the state", but Obama won more delegates.

Right now Obama and Hillary C (another rap artist?) are in a virtual dead heat in committed delegates, with a number of votes left to count, but those so-called "Super Delegates" are still problematical. Mostly they are party insiders whom the Clintons have been cultivating for years. They are under no obligation to support anyone, but one could profitably wager that they will come down solidly in the Clinton camp.

If Hillary gets the nomination at the convention based solely on the Super Delegate count, or solely on the seating of the controversial Michigan and Florida delegations, then I foresee the Democratic party entering another self-destruct mode (which BTW we are really good at) that will make the 1968 convention look like a Sunday school picnic.

3 Comments:

pepsiholic said...

Yeah, this election is going to be fun... If Shillary gets the nod, you're going to lose a good portion of the 80% of blacks who voted for him. If Hussein gets the nod, your going to lose a lot of hispanic votes and woman votes. You've probably already lost the racist/sexist portion of Edward voters who said that the U.S. isn't ready for a woman or a black President. Gotta love the Demorats... anarchy is your guys specialty.

How does President MCain and Vice President Huckleby sound? Want to make a bet school prayer comes back when Huck wins it all in 2012?

Farnsworth68 said...

PH! Welcome back, dude! I was getting a little concerned by your absence. You're usually johnny-on-the-spot. I was afraid that you'd gotten hit by a bus or something.
I think if McCain-Huckleberry is the ticket -- and happens to somehow eke out a hollow victory -- you're gonna get your wish a lot earlier than 2012.

pepsiholic said...

Sorry, had party clean-up detail one day, significant others b-day the next and then pulled a double at work yesterday.